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MLB: Head-to-head dominance key factor for MLB Monday2010-07-26
Monday’s Major League Baseball betting board features 10 games and for bettors, besides the usual array of systems, trends, pitchi Programa Descuentos Deportivos
ng matchups, and strength ratings, the recent head-to-head history between the teams in four of the matchups has to be given top consideration. In fact, with the Phillies, Jays, Twins, and White Sox having thoroughly dominated their current opponent in recent years, series history might prove to be THE most important factor in handicapping tonight’s games. Let’s take a closer look at those four matchups. For more key info, visit the GAME MATCHUPS page on Sportsbook.com.
Series history is usually down the list when it comes to handicapping baseball on a day-to-day basis, but the simple fact is that some teams just fare well against other, be it due to talent differences, matchup considerations, or even comfort levels at certain ballparks. Whatever the reason, one of the teams in the upcoming four matchups I am about to detail has dominated the other.
(951) COLORADO (HAMMEL) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (BLANTON) - 1:05 PM
As you can see, this is an early start, so be sure to get to handicapping it early. If you want the short & sweet method, consider the Phillies, who are going for the 4-game sweep of the Rockies. Of course, beating Colorado is nothing new for Philadelphia. Including the first three games of this series, the Phillies have beaten the Rockies in 16 of the last 20 head-to-head meetings. In the games in Philly, the hosts are 9-2 during that span, outscoring their visiting foes by an average margin of 7-3.
Today’s meeting has a very manageable price as well, with Joe Blanton taking on Jason Hammel as the -115 home favorite, according to Sportsbook.com. Blanton will try to extend a strong run of pitching by Phillies hurlers, who’ve allowed just five run in their current 4-game winning streak. Amazingly, this will be Blanton’s first career start versus the Rockies.
If you need more than the head-to-head edge for Philly, consider the Rockies’ awful performance as road dogs in 2010:
• COLORADO is 3-14 (-10.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 this season. The average score was COLORADO 2.9, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 2*)
(959) BALTIMORE (BERGESEN) at (960) TORONTO (MORROW) - 7:07 PM
A series with the lowly Baltimore Orioles usually brings out the best in the Toronto Blue Jays, who look to move to 10-0 on the season against the Orioles when they open a three-game series Monday night at Rogers Centre. Last weekend, the Jays swept the O’s in Baltimore, and that dominance was nothing new for Toronto.
The Blue Jays have outscored the Orioles 48-16 in winning the first nine meetings of the season, including a 16-3 scoring edge in the three in Toronto. The Blue Jays, who haven't won 10 straight over the Orioles (31-67) in a single season since 1999, have won eight in row over Baltimore at Rogers Centre and 17 of the last 19 there. They are -200 favorites to extend their reign in the head-to-head series.
Brad Bergesen (3-8, 6.51 ERA) goes for the Orioles and has lost his last four starts and is 0-6 with a 7.20 ERA in nine outings since defeating Seattle on May 12.
The Blue Jays counter with Brandon Morrow (6-6, 4.71), who hasn't pitched since giving up two runs and five hits while striking out eight in seven innings in last Saturday's 3-2 win in Baltimore. It was his first victory in 10 starts away from Toronto this season. The right-hander has fared much better at Rogers Centre, going 5-1 with a 3.27 ERA in nine outings with the Blue Jays winning seven times. This will be Morrow's first start against the Orioles in Toronto.
After winning their last four games prior to the All-star break, the Orioles have returned to their losing ways, going 2-8 since. Other than an 11-run outburst in a win over Tampa Bay, the O’s have scored just 19 runs in the other nine games. Overall, they score just 3.6 runs per game, setting Toronto up for what has been a powerful StatFox betting angle:
• TORONTO is 16-0 (+16.0 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 3.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. The average score was TORONTO 6.0, OPPONENT 2.0 - (Rating = 2*)
Dating back to ’08, Toronto is 17-4 vs. Baltimore, producing +9.7 units of profit.
(965) MINNESOTA (LIRIANO) at (966) KANSAS CITY (GREINKE) - 8:10 PM
Minnesota's production at the plate has paved the way to six consecutive series victories against Kansas City, and it'll try to beat Royals ace Zack Greinke for a third time this season in Monday night's opener at Kauffman Stadium.
Despite holding Twins star Joe Mauer down (.219 average), Greinke hasn't been able to boast similar success against the rest of the Twins. He's 2-6 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts in the series, including 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA in a pair of outings at Target Field this season.
The Twins counter with a pitcher capable of matching zeroes with Greinke, butFrancisco Liriano (8-7, 3.54) is just 1-2 with a 7.50 ERA in three starts at Kauffman Stadium, as the Royals are hitting .313 against him. Of course, Kansas City hitters own the best batting average in the major’s this season, at .281.
Being division rivals, these teams meet often, and Minnesota has beaten the Royals in 30 of the last 45 meetings dating back to ’08. Strangely, the Twins have been more effective at Kaufmann Stadium than at home during that stretch, going 16-5 for +11 units during that stretch.
The latest line shows a pick em’ for this contest, after Kansas City spent the last four days in New York, capturing one of the four contests as a +200 underdog or more.
(967) SEATTLE (HERNANDEZ) at (968) CHI WHITE SOX (DANKS) - 8:10 PM
In their last four games against the White Sox in 2010, the Mariners have mustered a total of five runs. Just last weekend in Seattle, Chicago took two of three games by holding the M’s to three runs in three days in front of their home fans.
As +115 underdogs on Monday night, the visiting Mariners will have to overcome a hot pitcher, and a team that has played nearly impeccable baseball at home over the last month to break the spell.
John Danks, who looks to win a fourth straight start overall, is 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA in his last four starts versus Seattle as well. He'll try to push Chicago's home winning streak to eight, which would be the club's longest since a nine-game stretch June 17-July 2, 2008.
Chicago, which has won 14 of 15 at U.S. Cellular Field since June 9, has won four straight and eight of nine at home against Seattle.
Looking to win three in a row for the first time since a six-game streak June 16-23, the Mariners give the ball to Felix Hernandez (7-6, 2.75), who hasn't allowed a run to the White Sox in his last three starts against them - a stretch covering 23 innings.
MLB: MLB Series Betting - Atlanta at San Francisco2010-04-09
Both the Braves and Giants showed considerable improvement in 2009 and both hope to be able to continue that momentum into a new season, leading to postseason baseball. They meet this weekend in the Bay Area with the host Giants priced as a -130 series favorite according to Sportsbook.com. Let’s take a look at the series game-by-game.
The series opener is a game of firsts for both squads. This is the home opener for San Francisco who swept Houston in their building and this the first road game of a new campaign for Atlanta who won series over Chicago.
The Braves might be without one of their top sticks in the lineup as Chipper Jones strained his oblique muscle in batting practice yesterday and was forced out of the game on Thursday. Depending on the severity, he could miss one game or the entire series. That means others have to step up in his place like Brian McCann or rookie Jason Heyward for Braves club that is 29-47 on the road the last two years in the first half of the season.
The Braves welcome back Tim Hudson, who didn’t pitch until September last season after elbow surgery, but feels great and is ready for new campaign. “I feel like I had better stuff than I had before surgery,” Hudson told the Braves’ official Web site following a spring start. “It almost feels like I’m going out there and opening up a new present.” Atlanta is 8-3 when Hudson starts after scoring two runs or less and the right-hander is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA in four career starts at AT&T Park.
Everyone expects the Giants to have great pitching again, but they scored 18 runs in taking all three games vs. Astros, which included 19 base hits in Wednesday’s finale. San Francisco was very comfortable at home last season with 52-29 record.
Jonathan Sanchez will try to provide manager Bruce Boche with a fourth straight strong performance from the San Fran starters, which limited the Astros to three earned runs and 13 hits in 19 2/3 innings. Sanchez is entrenched in Giants lore, throwing no-hitter last season, the first in 33-years for San Francisco. He has classic three-quarters lefty delivery with low 90’s fastball and sweeping curveball. He’s improved his split pitch that he can fade down and away from right-hand batters.
Sportsbook.com has Atlanta as -110 money line favorite with total Un8 for this afternoon opener. The Braves ended last season winning 21 of last 28 road contests and is 9-3-1 UNDER in game one of series. The Giants are in potentially negative spot, with 9-23 record with Sanchez as underdog starter and they were 15-5-3 OVER as home pooch.
Game 1 Edge: San Francisco
The early part of the schedule is perfect time for manager’s to get their whole roster involved. The Braves website is suggesting that could be true. Catcher McCann is expected to be off in the series afternoon opener after catching a night game. McCann should be back in the batting order on Saturday. Fourth outfielder Matt Diaz is presumed to play in at least one game and Omar Infante is expected to fit in somewhere in the infield.
There has been conflicting reports about who the game two starter will be, however Derek Lowe is on normal rest, thus he’s expected to take the mound. Lowe allowed five earned runs in six innings against Chicago on Opening Day and didn’t look completely at ease with the changes he’s made in delivery to get more sink on his pitches. The Braves won Lowe’s last four road starts in 2009 and he’s 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA in his last nine starts against the Giants.
San Francisco is expected to counter with fifth start Todd Wellemeyer, who made the club as a non-roster invitee, beating out a couple of top prospects for the job, at least for now. The 31-year old righty was cut loose by St. Louis after 7-10 season (5.89 ERA), which saw him surrender 160 hits in 122 1/3 innings, including 19 that went over the fence. Expect Atlanta to load up with left-handed bats since that is really a troublesome area for Wellemeyer. Possibly the Giants can hit their way to a victory and they are 6-2 at home against right-hand starters to begin the series.
Game 2 Edge: Atlanta
Tim Lincecum is expected to close the series for Giants in afternoon action and was dazzling in his initial start of the season. The two-time Cy Young winner looked intent on a third, hurling seven shutout innings, conceding four hits –all singles, fanning seven Houston batters and walking none. He will look to master the Braves lineup and is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA in six career starts against the Atlanta.
Bobby Cox could counter Lincecum with Kenshin Kawakami, his fifth starter. The Japanese right-hander was 7-12 with 3.86 ERA last season and earned the nickname “Dragonslayer” in out-pitching Roy Halladay and Ervin Santana last year for wins. He’ll have his chance to enhance that image against San Fran’s ace, being you typical Far East pitcher with array of fastballs, late-breaking sliders and downward curveballs, unafraid to throw any or all pitches on any count. Kawakami will get smoked if he throws the ball over the plate.
Game 3 Edge: San Francisco
The key to the series is the first game, as the latter two contests have team aces up against No. 5 starters. Both bullpens have been sharp to start the year so not much difference there. For this series we’ll give the nod to the Giants because of history in the Bay Area. San Francisco has won four in a row over Atlanta and seven of eight at AT&T Park.
Sportsbook.com series odds: Atlanta Even, San Francisco -130
StatFox Edge Pick: San Francisco