MLB: Boston in Great Betting Situation
MLB: Boston in Great Betting Situation
For the first time in the postseason this year, a series is tied at 1-1 changing locations.2008-10-13
For the first time in the postseason this year, a series is tied at 1-1 changing locations. Tampa Bay avoided the dreaded 0-2 start with 9-8 extra inning win, however Boston is far from disappointed having earned a split, returning to Fenway Park. The Red Sox had the majors’ second-best home record at 57-26 this season, and have won 12 of their last 15 playoff games at Fenway.
“I don’t really see the sense of urgency right now,” said Boston’s Jon Lester, who has not lost at home since April and will start Monday. “We’re at home, and we’ve got three against them here, and hopefully we can put up a good fight these next couple games and pick up a couple wins.” In spite of losing a series to Tampa Bay at home in September for the first time ever, the Red Sox have won 32 of last 39 games at home against the Rays.
Lester (17-6, 3.01 ERA) has become a post-season beast (no earned runs in 19 2/3 innings) and presently is the best pitcher on the Boston staff. He is perfectly suited to take on a team like the free swinging Rays, being 12-0 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game over the last two seasons. (Red Sox record) The young left-hander has become and accomplished stopper as well, as he and Boston are 10-2 when he pitches after a loss.
Tampa Bay is taking the right approach, in learning from winning at Fenway, taking their first ever series at the venerable ballyard. “Those (wins at Boston) were huge momentum shifts,” Tampa pitcher Matt Garza, told the team’s official Web site. “We needed those two in Boston - it let us know there is no curse, that we can play there and win.” Garza (11-10, 3.82) is going to have to pitch the game of his life to win the pivotal Game 3, and he is capable with 3-1 mark against the Red Sox with 3.86 ERA. He also backed by the Rays feeding off the energy of a close win being 21-8 after a one run win this season.
Sportsbook.com has Boston as -180 money line home favorite and has proven to be deadly in this price range. The Red Sox are 45-16 as a favorite of -150 or more this season and 24-5 as a home favorite of -150 to -200 this season. Lester and his teammates have been nearly unbeatable combination with 14-1 record as a home favorite of -110 or higher, wining by 4.4 runs per game.
Tampa Bay is 39-23 vs. an American League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better this season and will have to have Garza pitch better on the road than he has all season. The Rays right-hander is 4-7 with a 4.72 ERA in 16 road starts (Team record 5-11) in 2008.
As is the case in all ALCS games this season, TBS will have the telecast, with first pitch set for 4.37 Eastern.
StatFox Power Line – Boston -142